I'm going to 1) Break down the tribes and 2) Provide my cast rankings based on winner potential
Cheshire Tribe:
What an absolute mess. This has been some of the most messy gameplay I've ever seen, but it's been SO exciting. Easily the most fun/wild tribals we've had in the game thus far, and really picking up the pace for the game overall this season. After a rock draw that determined the majority, it's Alicia/Dayle/Rizo/Sarah that have been running this tribe. They seem like a pretty locked in alliance, however Alicia seems to be the crack that will end up unraveling this group. She doesn't seem to trust Dayle, and she regularly refers to Dayle and Sarah as villains which like.....with Sarah it's kinda true at this point LOL. Anyways, it looks like this group is planning on throwing the next challenge to get rid of Carly. I do understand the logic behind it, however I do think it's also a very short-sighted move in the sense that a) the other tribe will never have had to show their cards before a merge which means they're more likely to all want to protect each other and
it puts a huge target on all 4 of their backs moving forward and limits their options (they're basically betting all their chips on being able to bring in Hugo/Anna Lynn at the merge....but this puts Hugo and Anna Lynn in the power spots instead of them which is never a good move).
Alicia - Alicia was a mess 2 rounds ago when she hella pushed for an aleem vote. this would've resulted in Rizo being voted out, so she was lucky that didn't happen. However I do think Alicia isn't remaining as short-sighted as a couple other players in her alliance (Dayle/Sarah) and Alicia realizes she's going to have to betray this group at some point because there's no way it goes all the way. Alicia is on the Brady Bunch fantasy team so I'm still rooting for her but her game so far as been filled of ups and downs, I really have no idea how she will do in the long-term because it could go so many ways. I think her best bet is to make a move this round before the merge and get in good with Carly/Brenton, this would be a huge/bold move but it could be a winning move.
Brenton - As the founder of the Brenton Fan Club, I might be selling my Brenton stock pretty soon here. I just don't get it. Don't take this personally Brenton because I really enjoy rooting for you and have all season, but it's getting to the point where you're just being used and abused round after round and just keep going to the same people preaching the same song....expecting something to change. Brenton will probably be in a influential spot come the merge because of his lack of allies/swing-vote potential but I feel like it's getting to the point where people just don't necessarily respect him as much as a player and are just walking all over him. I hope he sees this and does something bold to change it because he's genuinely the nicest person in this cast and could be such a GREAT underdog story.
Carly - Carly is just the best entertainment wise. She's just so badass and the thought of this tribe throwing a challenge to rob her of merge/jury is actually disgusting to me. She hasn't done anything wrong on this tribe really. People gave her a lot of shit for voting with aleem/felix, but that only happened minutes before tribal and it was because of how much shit alicia/sarah/dayle/rizo talked about her to them. She had no choice and they essentially forced her into that spot. Don't get me wrong, Carly has made plenty of mistakes (mostly on her previous tribe with the Lance vote-off) but I feel like people are just constantly so intimidated by her and it's frustrating. Carly is most likely toast here but I am keeping my fingers crossed for a miracle.
Dayle - Dayle is one of the only people on this cast who I knew beforehand and I will always be a Dayle fan. She's so funny and just makes every call worth listening in on. With that said, she is not playing a winning game right now. She's been extremely under the radar, she had a brilliant first couple rounds in the game but since then it's really been uneventful. She has this alliance of 4, but she's clearly on the bottom of it, and will be the first one to be betrayed (most likely by alicia) sooner than later. I just don't feel like Dayle is seeing the bigger picture of the game in the sense that she NEEDS other connections, other people to play with at the merge and she's really in a terrible spot when the merge comes because she will have Malcolm coming for her as well. I hope something changes here because when Dayle is on, she's ON and it's so fun to watch. The one thing going in her favor is that there might be bigger fish to fry at first when merge comes and maybe she will get blindsided (one of her allies goes) and it stirs up a storm of Dayle revenge because THAT is what I want to see!!!
Rizo - Rizo has been probably my favorite player to watch thus far in the game, mostly because of just how damn entertaining his confessionals are and how well he moves socially in the game. It's been very impressive to watch. However, he fucked up last round....even though it was an accident.....having Aleem higher on his prevote list ended up sending him him over Brenton and that was pretty bad for Rizos game. Aleem would've been locked in with Rizo. However, Rizo is doing the best out of his alliance in terms of talking with other people/keeping his options open, AND I'd say he probably has the most influence in this alliance of 4. So he's got the best of both worlds there. The downside for Rizo? He will be one of if not the biggest threats in the game at the Merge and I'm not sure how he's gonna finesse his way to the Final 2 as of now.
Sarah - Sarah taking a heel-turn and becoming a Villain is not something I expected at all this season LOL. This is my winner pick we're talking about, and I'm not sure it's going to actually come true anymore. Sarah has so much excitement, energy, and love for the game that it's SO fun to watch her play. But she's a bit messy and she can put her foot in her mouth quite often. It's happened a few times already and I'm worried that people will start to see how savage of a player she is and be very threatened by it. I think Sarah's best chance long-term is re-connecting with Hugo/Leanna at the merge and making THAT alliance her most important one. Because it is the most important. Leanna and Hugo have connections she doesn't , and she will need their protection in the long-term. My fear with Sarah is that she get's too invested in this Rock On (4 person) alliance on this tribe and it ends up sinking her game long-term. Sarah can still win this game, she just has to make smart moves and fade into the background for a few rounds at the merge.
Dormouse:
Anders - Anders is a comp beast LOL. That's what I'm going to start off with, because his performance as Spymaster in this Codenames immunity challenge was very impressive. He was definitely flexing his vocabulary but it was actually super funny watching him talk about his tribe in his prod chat during it. It's so weird, some days I really like Anders because he's hilarious and puts so much effort in this game but sometimes there's other things that happen where I'm like smh stop it. Anders is in a REALLY bad spot in this game. I'd say he has pretty much no shot at winning and it's because of his threat level and also just the way he's talked to some of the players earlier in the game and how that reputation has just snowballed the last couple weeks. I think Anders is actually playing better now but I don't know how much it'll matter. If this tribe lost, he's likely being blindsided. But if they win (which they prolly will), Anders could dip out of the first merge tribal and become a swing-vote after that. So there's a path for anders, but the first step is recognizing how fucked he is. As of now, he just doesn't realize it.
Anna Lynn - Anna Lynn is dominating this game right now. It's kinda crazy, she hasn't been making these crazy moves or flexing her power but it's so clear that she will be in the best spot come the merge. She has an entire alliance of 4 on the OTHER tribe that is throwing challenges so that she survives/can work with them. She also has an alliance with Gerda/Hugo. She is close with Leanna who refuses to vote her. Malcolm and anders even like her. She's just completely safe and is just doing fantastic socially. I'm worried for her come the merge in the sense that she will have to pick sides and I don't know how she's going to go about that without burning people/pissing them off. She's going to be in a very tricky spot but I'm excited to see how she plays her cards because it could help her long-run. I think her working with Rizo is going to be important but if I was them, I would do something similar that I did with Kyle/Kaitlyn last season which is pretend u guys have a fight/vote differently for a few rounds and don't appear as close. That's the only chance they have in the long-run to make the end realistically.
Gerda - Gerda has continued to get better and better as this game goes on. The worst part of her game is over (the tribal immunities). I thought she would be voted out by now because of her performance in them, but now she's survived them I think she has a legitimate chance of getting very far. No one will see her as a threat but she is actually very strategic. I think she will be a constant swing vote at the merge (similar to Brenton), it's just a gut feeling I have. I think Gerda is much better strategically though and could pull off some killer moves. She knows how to separate personal from game and if she has those iconic moments it could happen.
Hugo - Hugo has become a star in this game! He really has blossomed these last few rounds. He's in a great spot in this game (similar to Anna Lynn) where at the Merge he will have alliances/protection with nearly every player in the game. I think this will become VERY messy for Hugo at the merge and I'm just hoping he doesn't get too paranoid/sloppy with his gameplay (like he did the first couple rounds of the game). If he can stay calm and make good strategic moves, I have high hopes for Hugo. He's becoming a huge threat but I don't think people see him as one, and that's the perfect situation for him.
Leanna - It's hard to talk about Leanna because like.........she really hasn't done anything LOL. No tribals so far, and while that's nice and all to make the merge without a tribal...it's also not the best because she hasn't proven loyalties. With that said, I think she's going to have a pivotal moment come the merge. She's going to have to choose between her OG tribe people (Sarah/Hugo) vs her Maryland connection to Anders. If she chooses to side with Anders immediately at the merge, I think she's screwed. Everyone is already so paranoid about those 2 being a final 2...if she goes out of his way to try and help him/campaign for him, she's going to do herself in. I want to get to see Leanna play at the merge and thrive because it's something we've all been waiting so long to see! It could be so much fun to watch, because she will have SO many options....she just can't attach herself to Anders...she will become collateral damage.
Malcolm - Malcolm is unfortunately in a really bad spot overall in the game. He's not COMPLETELY screwed but it's getting there. He's likely about to lose Carly, a crucial ally for him, and he's going to have no idea at the merge that hugo/gerda have turned on him/don't trust him. He just doesn't have many connections with the other tribe either. It's just going to be really rough for him, he's going to need to win first immunity really bad...because if he isn't safe and Anders plays his power at the merge to leave tribal...I'd predict next up on the list to go is Malcolm. I don't have the answer to Malcolm's game, it's really a bad spot to be in at this point. But I think it's going to start with not tying himself down to OG green (Anders/Gerda). If he makes that an apparent trio at the merge, he's doomed. I believe in Malcolm as a player and I believe he's more than capable of getting himself out of this situtation. That's why I'm not completely out on him as a possible winner yet, but it's going to be a TOUGH road. Either way, I'm super excited to see what he comes up with at the merge and how he plays his cards because he's easily one of the most enteratining players in this game and has been one of the stars of the premerge.
WINNER RANKINGS
1) These are solely based on my predictions of who is best situated to WIN the game as of now, these are not rankings based on who I'm rooting for/enjoy watching the most or anything like that 2) These change round to round and I'm sure I'll look super dumb after the season LOL. 3) These rankings take into account current standing in the game, likeliness to get far in the game, and overall belief in the player to potentially get to the end and win.
12th - Anders
11th - Carly
10th - Dayle
9th - Gerda
8th - Malcolm
7th - Leanna
6th - Brenton
5th - Sarah
4th - Rizo
3rd - Alicia
2nd - Hugo
1st - Anna Lynn
it puts a huge target on all 4 of their backs moving forward and limits their options (they're basically betting all their chips on being able to bring in Hugo/Anna Lynn at the merge....but this puts Hugo and Anna Lynn in the power spots instead of them which is never a good move).